The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases the final part of its
Fifth Assessment Report, which further discusses the possible future impacts of
climate change.*
The
first two reports were released in 1990 and 1995, respectively. Both of these
highlighted the potential rise in global temperature and the long term effects
of greenhouse gases. The second report was particularly strong in clarifying
that humans were affecting the climate.
The
third report, released in 2001, provided even greater certainty on this and
future projected temperatures. Every model presented in the report showed
global temperatures and sea levels rising significantly by the end of the 21st
century.
The
fourth assessment report was released in 2007. This was by far the most alarming
to date. New data, along with state-of-the-art computer modelling, showed a
global temperature increase as high as 6.4°C (11.5°F) by the end of the 21st
century on a "business as usual" scenario.
Even
these dire predictions proved to be an underestimate, however, due to an
incomplete scientific understanding. They failed to include the amplifying
effects of certain feedback mechanisms – such as methane, released from melting
permafrost – and dynamic shifts in glacier melt. Another factor being overlooked
was the sudden and rapid emergence of China and India. These nations, with
their enormous populations, were now becoming industrialised at a phenomenal
rate, creating a huge increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
Since
1990, each report from the IPCC has been more certain and more grim. The fifth
assessment report continues this trend. By 2014, the next generation of Earth
System Models has produced petabytes of new climate data, making available far
more information for this document than in earlier reports. The fifth
assessment expands on the predictions of the 2007 report – narrowing the range
of possible temperature and sea level rises. More is known about how natural
processes react to climate change, helping to build a comprehensive view of the
future climate. The overall conclusion of the Fifth Assessment Report is that
humanity is on a path to self-destruction and is rapidly running out of time.** Despite these warnings, and a broad
scientific consensus, much of the public remains sceptical about global
warming.*
References
References
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report
Accessed 23rd July 2011.
A stunning year in climate science reveals that human civilization is on the precipice, Think Progress:
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/11/15/207034/year-in-climate-science-climategate/
Accessed 23rd July 2011.
Arguments from Global Warming Skeptics and what the science really says, Skeptical Science:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
Accessed 23rd July 2011.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146606/concerns-global-warming-stable-lower-levels.aspx
Accessed 23rd July 2011.
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